Global crude oil prices have retreated to levels not seen since before tensions between the US and Iran escalated into military conflict. Yet petrol prices across Nigeria remain stubbornly high, sparking frustration among consumers expecting relief at the pump.
Brent crude, the world's key oil benchmark, plummeted sharply from peaks hit during the worst of the geopolitical crisis. That crisis had threatened major supply routes and sparked fears of widespread oil shortages across global markets.
By Wednesday, Brent crude had fallen to $73.14 per barrel. The US variant, WTI, dropped to $69.85.
Before the US-Iran conflict erupted, a litre of petrol sold for between N770 and N800. Today, prices range from N1,200 to N1,300 per litre depending on location.
The collapse came after international markets grew calmer about potential supply disruptions. Major oil producers signalled they'd maintain steady output levels throughout the crisis.
Since the US and Iran reached a peace agreement, crude has continued falling. But Nigerian petrol prices have barely budged, dropping just N75 since the peak of tensions.
Nigerians had hoped cheaper oil would translate directly to cheaper fuel. That hasn't happened, raising eyebrows about how quickly global gains reach local consumers.
One fuel marketer told our reporter the ex-depot price shouldn't exceed N700 per litre. Currently, it sits at N1,180.
Industry watchers say pump prices could come under pressure if oil stays low and the naira holds steady. They predict marketers may be forced to cut prices in coming weeks.
But Dr. Ayodele Oni, an oil and gas analyst, cautioned against expecting immediate relief.
"Even if crude falls back, pump prices are unlikely to follow it all the way down," he noted.
Nigeria's deregulated fuel market operates differently than before. Brent crude prices alone no longer determine what Nigerians pay at filling stations.
According to Dr. Oni, the exchange rate has become the real driver of petrol costs.
"Landed petrol is priced in dollars," he explained to our correspondent.
Petrol prices affect everything from transport costs to food prices across the economy. Real relief only reaches ordinary Nigerians when both crude eases and the naira remains firm.
"Lower crude is necessary, but on its own it is not enough," the analyst said. "The naira does much of the heavy lifting."
Local crude pricing would offer another option, he added. Yet such pricing doesn't currently reflect international crude rates or foreign exchange movements.
