By Shedrack Onitsha,
The political landscape of Rivers State has recently morphed into a theatre of the absurd. The ongoing supremacy fight between the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, and his successor, Governor Siminalayi Fubara, has dominated headlines, leading many pundits to predict a collapse of the President’s political gains in the Treasure Base of the Nation, with some alluding that the fight will cost the president the State in the 2027 presidential election. However, a deeper dive into the mechanics of grassroots mobilisation suggests that for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, this conflict is not a crisis; it is rather a strategic windfall that will boost the President's votes come 2027.
In traditional politics, a divided house is a recipe for defeat. But the Rivers situation is an anomaly. We are witnessing a phenomenon that I termed "Competitive Loyalty." Unlike in 2023, where Nyesom Wike stood as the lone titan mobilising for Tinubu against the internal friction of the APC led by Amachi and the "Obidient" wave, 2027 is shaping up to be a different beast.
Today, both camps are fighting for the President’s ear and validation. Minister Wike is fighting to retain his structure to prove he remains the indispensable political field marshal of the South-South region. Conversely, Governor Fubara is working to demonstrate that he holds the state’s resources and the masses' hearts, signalling to the Presidency that he can deliver even greater votes than his predecessor.
This is a "Tactical Win-Win". For a strategist like Tinubu, intervening to "liquidate" one side in favour of the other would be a tactical error. The current stalemate ensures that: Maximum Mobilisation: Both the Minister’s camp and the Governor’s camp will spend the next one year trying to out-organise each other. To prove their worth to the Villa, both must deliver a landslide for the President in 2027.
As it stands today, Wike controls the 23 local government chairmen and about 16 house of Assembly members in Rivers’ state, and as you know, this is a strong grassroot political base that anyone Presidential candidate gunning to win Rivers’ state will not toil with, hence, President Tinubu’s managers, would rather tolerate Wike’s overbearing attitude than to loss his support ahead of 2027, to them they have come to accept the fact, that Wike is a “necessary evil.”
Governor Fubara in the other hands controls the state vault, with huge oil money and IGR, he also controls State Executive Council and a large number of appointees who are loyal to him and because of current political crisis in the state, many Rivers people are sympathetic to him, as such he has huge political base, and Tinubu and APC being very strategic will protect Fubara and these organic followers whom many will vote Tinubu and Fubara to teach Wike some political lesson.
President Tinubu, not taking an outward stance, allows both factions to "muzzle" each other at the local level while remaining united in their support for his re-election. This will give the President "The Neutrality Advantage." Whether the votes come through Wike’s grassroots "marksmanship" or Fubara’s executive machinery, the destination remains the same, the APC’s national tally.
Rivers State remains a vital economic hub in the Niger Delta region with a huge resource base, and, with both sides desperate for federal validation, the state’s strategic assets and political funds are effectively insulated from the opposition, this again will give Mr President "Financial and Strategic Security," far ahead than any candidate the ADC or any other party is going to field in the next election.
Those who believe the "Obidient phenomenon" or the remnants of the Rotimi Amaechi era will capitalise on this rift are miscalculating the President's appetite for grassroots politics. Tinubu understands that in the Niger Delta, "who owns the land" is determined by who can mobilise the most aggressively. By 2027, the rivalry will have forced both Wike and Fubara to sharpen their structures to a razor’s edge. For the President, this means he won't just have one engine running in Rivers State; he will have two high-powered motors competing to pull his chariot. With that, the 2027 elections are a "Settled Case" in Rivers State.
The Rivers crisis is far from being a liability to President Tinubu, as some political pundits want us to believe. It is a self-sustaining political gimmick that ensures the state remains in President Tinubu’s kitty. As long as the fight continues, both actors are forced to remain loyal to the centre to seek leverage against each other. In this game of political chess, the pieces may be at each other’s throats, but the Grandmaster in the Villa is already several moves ahead. For Tinubu, the Rivers imbroglio is a settled case, a secured Victory!
Shedrack Onitsha-Fciims, Mnipr, A Strategic Communicator and Public Relations Consultancy Writes From Ughelli!
