The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency has warned that over 18 million Nigerians face exposure to severe flooding in 2026. The agency's latest forecast predicts devastating impacts across multiple sectors of the economy.
Arc Umar Mohammed, the director general of NiHSA, disclosed the figures during an exclusive interview. He explained that the predictions aim to prompt state governments to act swiftly and deploy preventive measures against the anticipated flood disaster.
More than 2,000 hectares of farmland will be submerged if the forecast materialises, according to the agency's analysis. The flooding will also damage 8,794 educational facilities and 3,808 healthcare centres across the country.
Emmanuel David Tuna, head of the agency's Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing unit, expanded on the geographical scope of the forecast. He noted that the predictions cover the entire calendar year and are based on analysis of rivers flowing into Nigeria.
Intense flooding is expected in Sokoto and Kebbi states, with Kebbi projected to experience the most severe impact. The agency also anticipates heavy flooding in areas surrounding the Kainji Dam once it fills and releases water into the Niger River.
Kwara state and parts of the Federal Capital Territory will face significant flooding, with water moving downstream to Lokoja. Lokoja itself will experience intense inundation, the agency predicted.
The forecast extends to the southern regions, where flooding is anticipated around Onitsha and Anambra state. Delta and Bayelsa states will also face considerable water levels in 2026.
Adamawa state, serving as the entry point for the River Benue, will experience flooding from the border through Jimeta and into Taraba state. The agency classified these as heavy flooding zones based on its mapping data.
Makurdi, the Benue state capital, won't face the most intense flooding predicted for 2026, though the forecast still includes significant water levels there. The agency has categorised flooding predictions into low, medium and high categories, complete with expected depths for each location.
Mohammed raised serious concerns about state governments' failure to heed the agency's warnings. He told reporters that states consistently dismiss forecasts and resist cooperation with the agency on mitigation strategies.
"Most times we get disregarded; our warnings are not taken with seriousness or with authority for it to be regulated into the state," he said. The agency releases forecasts before flooding begins, yet states often fail to recognise the impending danger.
NiHSA has developed the National Flood Insurance Programme to cushion the severe effects of flooding disasters. According to Mohammed, the programme operates on a metric-based system designed to reduce the intensity of flood impacts across affected communities.
