Nigeria's inflation story isn't found in central bank reports. It lives in the price of a pot of jollof rice.
SBM Intelligence has monitored this national dish across markets since 2016. The numbers tell a grim tale of economic deterioration.
In the first quarter of 2026, a standard pot hit ₦30,435. That's the highest price ever recorded.
Six years ago, things looked different. Back in April 2020, during COVID-19 lockdowns, a pot cost ₦7,590.
The pandemic wrecked supply chains across the country. Nigeria's border closure, meant to stop rice smuggling, had devastating side effects.
Legal imports dried up while domestic production stalled. Prices climbed to ₦8,595 by early 2022.
Diesel costs exploded that year. Petrol shortages worsened the crisis.
Insecurity in farming regions began choking food supplies. Traders couldn't move goods safely.
Then 2023 arrived like a hammer. March brought naira redesign chaos and fuel scarcity to the streets.
A pot jumped to ₦10,882. By May, everything changed.
The new government scrapped fuel subsidies and unified exchange rates. The impact came fast and hard.
By June, jollof rice cost ₦12,373. The naira weakened against the dollar almost overnight.
Imported goods—rice, oil, seasoning—all became expensive. September's price: ₦13,106.
Nigeria had closed its border with Niger. Grain and onion supplies vanished from markets.
The climb continued relentlessly through 2024. By March, the naira hit over ₦1,600 per dollar.
Food inflation soared nationwide. A pot cost ₦16,955.
June brought a pest called Tuta absoluta. Tomato prices doubled overnight.
Jollof rice jumped to ₦20,274. Cooks had no choice but to raise prices.
September 2024 saw petrol hiked to ₦1,030 per litre. Devastating floods struck 29 states.
Farmland across Nigeria was destroyed. Transport costs skyrocketed immediately.
By month's end, a pot cost ₦21,300. March 2025 brought ₦25,486.
June 2025 peaked at ₦28,066. The pressure never let up.
Third quarter 2025 offered brief relief. Harvest season brought temporary supplies.
Prices dipped to ₦26,656. But the respite didn't last long.
In Kano, costs still rose 6.8 percent. Logistics expenses and insecurity surcharges persisted.
Informal checkpoints added to every shipment's cost. Farmers couldn't protect their goods.
February 2026 brought international conflict. Brent crude spiked above $110 per barrel.
Nigeria produces oil but has no fuel reserves. Petrol prices nearly doubled that month.
Diesel surged past ₦1,500 per litre. Transport fares tripled on some routes.
Grain freight costs jumped 56 percent. By March, jollof rice hit ₦30,435.
What does this mean for ordinary Nigerians? The answer is brutal.
In some states, jollof rice now costs more than the monthly minimum wage. It's become a luxury, not a staple.
Families cut portion sizes to survive. Others swap ingredients for cheaper options.
Many skip meals entirely to save money. Children go hungry so parents can eat.
The National Bureau of Statistics released sobering findings in early 2026. Sixty-three percent of households reduced food intake over the past year.
Forty-one percent skipped entire days without meals. They simply couldn't afford to eat.
