Ahead of the US Nov. 5 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump has significantly closed Democrats' historical advantage among Hispanic men, now trailing Democrat Kamala Harris by just two points—44% to 46%.
Advocate.ng reports that this marks a major shift from Trump’s 19-point deficit against Democrat Joe Biden among Hispanic men at this stage in 2020, according to a Reuters/Ipsos analysis of polling data conducted through October 21, 2024.
Despite Trump’s gains, Harris has offset them with an increase in support from white women, a group that favored Trump over Biden by 12 points in 2020 but now leans toward Harris by a margin of 3 points, 46% to 43%. The candidates are in a dead heat overall, with Harris holding a slight edge, 46% to 43%, in the latest poll conducted from October 16-21.
Trump’s expanded support among Hispanic and Black men contrasts with his challenges among white women, whose shift toward Harris reflects larger changes in the voting coalitions each candidate is rallying. As Trump consolidates support from minority men, Harris has cut into the Republican edge with white women—a group comprising nearly 40% of voters in the last presidential election.
"I respect Trump as a businessman," said Robert Alomia, a Hispanic security professional from Elizabeth, New Jersey, who plans to vote for Trump after abstaining in 2020. Alomia believes Trump’s firm stance on immigration is appealing, adding, "He’s a leader who isn’t afraid to act."
Trump has criticized the Biden administration for allegedly allowing an influx of migrants at the U.S. southern border, while Harris has countered, accusing Trump of derailing bipartisan border control measures in Congress. Hispanic voters have historically leaned Democratic since the 1970s, but Trump’s support among registered Hispanic voters now stands at 37%, up from 30% in 2020. Harris leads at 51%, a modest decline from Biden's 54% at this point in 2020.
In addition to gains among Hispanic voters, Trump has made inroads with Black men, with 18% now backing him—an increase from 14% four years ago. His appeal to Black voters, including both men and women, rose to 12% overall, from 8% in 2020, reflecting a steady uptick among a traditionally Democratic base.
GOP strategist Kristin Davison attributed Trump's appeal to Black and Hispanic voters to his focus on issues like economic opportunity and family values. "Trump’s message resonates because he addresses not just economic issues but core values like family and work ethic," she said.
Meanwhile, Harris has benefited from a boost in support among white women voters, especially since the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision that overturned federal abortion protections. Many of these voters view Harris as a more steady, trustworthy figure compared to Trump. Democratic strategist Meghan Hays noted that Harris’ lead among women must continue to grow to counter Trump’s gains among minority men, adding that the race could come down to a razor-thin margin.
The election is unfolding as a high-stakes, close contest, with both candidates navigating evolving demographics and coalitions. As Trump strives to expand his minority base, Harris is doubling down on her appeal to women and swing voters disillusioned with Trump, as the nation watches closely to see how these shifting alliances impact the outcome in November.
(Cued from Reuters)
