The quality of Nigeria's 2027 general election is being shaped right now, long before voters cast their ballots, Oluwafemi John Adebayo has warned. The head of research and programmes at Kimpact Development Initiative made the observation during an exclusive interview with reporters on Monday.
Adebayo said the credibility of the poll will be decided in party primaries, courtrooms, security meetings, voter registration centres and newsrooms — not just on election day. "The real question is not whether Nigeria is preparing for the 2027 general election.
It is whether Nigeria is preparing for a credible democratic contest," he told reporters.
The Independent National Electoral Commission has released its timetable and political parties have held their primaries. Candidates are being registered on the nomination portal while voter registration has sparked fresh enthusiasm among Nigerians.
However, Adebayo argued that these administrative steps alone do not guarantee a credible election. An election can follow its schedule perfectly yet still fail to earn public confidence if citizens believe the outcome has already been determined, he explained.
Many Nigerians remain engaged with politics despite economic hardship, according to Adebayo. Young people are actively debating political issues, fact-checking claims and creating civic content on social media.
The dominant narrative paints Nigerians as politically apathetic, but the evidence tells a different story, Adebayo said. "Many citizens have not disengaged from politics; they have become sceptical of institutions," he added.
Citizens now question whether their votes will actually shape political outcomes, he noted. This scepticism stems from how party primaries were conducted.
The quality of the 2027 election has already been damaged by party primary processes marked by elite influence, candidate imposition, money politics and violence, according to Adebayo. Governors wielded significant power in selecting All Progressives Congress candidates, he said.
Opposition parties have also struggled with leadership disputes, parallel structures and court battles, he added. "Political parties are the gatekeepers of democracy.
When they struggle to conduct credible internal elections, the credibility of the general election begins to erode long before the first ballot is cast," Adebayo stated.
The Independent National Electoral Commission has released its timetable, engaged political parties and managed the nomination process. But the electoral body still faces the challenge of rebuilding public trust following the 2023 general election, Adebayo said.
"Electoral commissions conduct elections. Public confidence determines whether those elections are believed," he concluded.
