Nigeria's stock market has soared 52% in dollar terms this year, ranking as the world's fourth-best performer. Yet for many ordinary Nigerians, the gains feel distant and unreachable.
The naira strengthened nearly 5% against the dollar since January, and the country's dollar bonds returned 4.4%, more than double the emerging-market average. But food prices, electricity bills, transport costs and other essentials have skyrocketed across the nation.
Sulaimon Isiaka, a 45-year-old newspaper vendor, sits beneath a red umbrella outside Nigeria's main stock exchange in Lagos each day. He delivers bundles of papers to the Nigerian Exchange Group and works near the Central Bank of Nigeria and some of the country's largest banks.
Few Nigerians stand closer to the heart of President Bola Tinubu's economic revival than Isiaka does. The benchmark index surge will likely accelerate when Dangote Petroleum Refinery lists on the market, aiming to raise as much as $2 billion in Africa's largest initial public offering.
Yet Isiaka earns about 3,000 naira ($2.18) daily. He says his income has halved since Tinubu took office three years ago.
"It is not enough to pay electricity bills, pay children's school fees, pay rent and buy food for the family," Isiaka told reporters. "Before this government, rent was cheaper, food was cheaper and I was selling more newspapers, so my life was much better."
The frustration fueled deadly protests in 2024 that authorities eventually suppressed. Many Nigerians, including 25-year-old housekeeper Wudira Talwa, say they won't vote for Tinubu in the next election.
Finance minister Taiwo Oyedele acknowledged the gap recently. "We are mindful that macroeconomic stability, while necessary, is not sufficient on its own," he said.
"Economic growth must be inclusive and must translate into tangible improvements in the welfare of Nigerians."
This disconnect mirrors a pattern seen across emerging markets from Argentina to Kenya. Reforms that investors praise often impose steep immediate costs on voters, who must wait years for benefits to arrive.
In Nigeria, that pain deepens because ordinary citizens bear the burden while graft among the political elite remains entrenched. The perception that rules apply differently to rich and poor has intensified anger.
Campaigning begins next month ahead of January 16 elections. The economic hardship from Tinubu's policies is now becoming a significant political problem for the administration.
