OPay is charging ahead with a US initial public offering that targets a $4 billion valuation, backed by heavyweight banks Citi and JPMorgan. But a growing chorus of Nigerian economists and market analysts is questioning whether this strategy overlooks a more obvious choice: listing at home.
The fintech company's roots run deep in Nigeria. Its 50 million customers are Nigerian, its agents operate on Nigerian streets, and its revenue streams flow in Naira.
Without Nigeria's regulatory support and consumer trust, OPay's growth story simply wouldn't exist. Yet the company is now looking elsewhere for its market debut.
US listings do carry real advantages, observers acknowledge. Wall Street offers deeper pools of capital, global attention, analyst coverage, and the prestige attached to Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange.
For a company with regional ambitions, these benefits matter. But capital alone shouldn't drive the decision, analysts argue.
Investors back companies they understand. On that front, OPay's US ambitions face steeper challenges than its advisers may admit.
As the fintech unicorn prepares for a potential 2026 listing, several obstacles loom large. Geopolitical tensions pose one immediate threat.
OPay was founded by Chinese billionaire Zhou Yahui and counts SoftBank as a major backer. US regulators and investors now scrutinise companies with significant Chinese ownership structures.
Data privacy, corporate governance, and capital flows between Nigeria and China-linked parent entities could all face intense questioning. The company may encounter delays and demands it didn't anticipate.
Then there's the valuation question. OPay wants $4 billion—double its 2021 price tag.
African fintech remains attractive, but investor appetite has shifted dramatically.
Wall Street now prizes profitability over user growth at any cost. That era has ended.
Competitors like Moniepoint and PalmPay are battling for identical market share. If OPay cuts margins to retain its massive user base, that $4 billion ask suddenly looks expensive to sceptical American investors.
What gets lost in this debate is how far Nigeria's capital market has travelled. The Nigerian Exchange Limited has matured into something far more than a symbolic venue.
At least eight companies listed there now carry market valuations exceeding N5 trillion. MTN Nigeria, Dangote Cement, BUA Foods, and Airtel Africa all trade on the NGX.
David Adonri, Vice Chairman at Highcap Securities, doesn't mince words on the matter. "The Nigerian capital market has achieved sufficient depth and sophistication," he told reporters.
According to Adonri, "Companies with strong domestic foundations can successfully raise capital locally." He added that OPay's case is particularly compelling for a home listing.
"Operations, customers, and revenue are substantially anchored in Nigeria," he noted. "A domestic listing would align the business with investors who truly grasp its market dynamics."
Proponents of the US route counter that Nigerian institutional investors can't yet match Wall Street's liquidity. International exposure also accelerates strategic partnerships and geographic expansion, they argue.
Still, the debate signals something important: Nigeria's financial markets are no longer second best. They're credible alternatives.
