A six-year study by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa has documented a staggering toll from Nigeria's security crisis. Between 2020 and 2025, the organisation found that 79,323 people were killed in violence linked to terrorism, while 34,773 civilians were abducted.
ORFA released its findings in a report titled "Four Times Boko Haram? How the World Misreads Nigeria's Violence" at a press briefing in Jos yesterday.
Senior Research Analyst Frans Vierhout signed the statement announcing the investigation's results.
The violence averaged seven attacks and 36 deaths each day across the country. Of those killed, 42,033 were civilians and 37,290 were security personnel or armed group members.
Researchers spent years cross-checking attack patterns to verify their findings. The data challenges widely held beliefs about what drives insecurity in Nigeria.
The report reveals a striking breakdown of responsibility for civilian deaths. Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province, known as ISWAP, together accounted for just 12 per cent of civilian killings—eight per cent from Boko Haram and four per cent from ISWAP.
Groups classified as "Fulani Terror Groups" were responsible for 44 per cent of civilian deaths, or 18,577 people. This far exceeds the combined toll from Boko Haram and ISWAP.
ORFA stressed an important distinction in its findings. The organisation said it separated armed groups from the wider Fulani ethnic population, noting that the vast majority of Fulani people played no role in violence.
Vierhout explained how researchers reached their conclusions. "We examined how killings occur, who is targeted, where attacks take place and seasonal fluctuations.
The evidence points strongly in one direction," he said.
The organisation argues that international focus has concentrated too heavily on Boko Haram. This attention, ORFA contends, has obscured other organised violence operating across Nigeria.
On kidnappings, the report found that "Fulani Terror Groups" were linked to 43 per cent of cases while "Unidentified Terror Groups" claimed 49 per cent. The organisation documented 34,773 abductions during the review period.
A religious pattern emerged starkly in the violence. Christians accounted for 28,551 of those killed, while 13,224 Muslims died during the same timeframe.
Relative to population size, Christians in affected states faced higher death rates. Christian abductions totalled 15,932 compared with 15,272 among Muslims.
A related ORFA publication titled "Captivity by Creed: The Religious Sorting System Nobody Talks About" examined treatment differences. Senior Research Analyst Steven Kefas cited survivor accounts alleging that Christian hostages faced steeper ransom demands and longer negotiations.
According to testimonies reviewed in the publication, Christian captives endured harsher conditions and faced greater execution risk. Christian women reportedly experienced heightened sexual violence.
The report documented that three-quarters of civilian deaths occurred during attacks on farming communities. These attacks involved abductions, sexual violence and destruction of property.