Few sectors define Nigeria's economic prospects like electric power. Yet few have disappointed as consistently.
As executive director (finance & accounts) at the Transmission Company of Nigeria from 2013 to 2017, I witnessed firsthand the potential and pitfalls of Nigeria's electricity market during the landmark sector reforms. Since then, I've written extensively and advised policymakers on practical fixes for the industry's mounting problems.
My analysis—spanning articles from 2019 through 2025—points to a fundamental truth: Nigeria's power crisis stems from governance, investment and technology gaps, not engineering alone.
More than a decade after privatising the Generation Companies and Distribution Companies in 2013, one piece of the puzzle remains stubbornly unchanged. The Transmission Company of Nigeria still operates as a federal government monopoly, with no private sector involvement.
This matters enormously. The TCN serves as the sole transmission backbone connecting all power generators to distributors across the country.
When it falters, the entire electricity supply chain suffers.
The 2013 reforms promised something different. They aimed to build a competitive market that would attract private capital, boost efficiency and deliver reliable power to Nigerians.
Ownership of generation and distribution companies changed hands. The transmission network didn't.
Nigeria's electricity shortage tells a sobering story. With over 230 million people, the country typically generates just 5,000 to 6,000 megawatts on most days.
South Africa, with roughly one-quarter Nigeria's population, boasts installed capacity exceeding 50,000 megawatts despite its own operational headaches.
China and India proved something crucial over the last thirty years: reliable electricity fuels industrialisation, urbanisation and innovation. Electricity isn't a luxury anymore—it's the backbone of modern economies.
Nigeria faces multiple, reinforcing obstacles. The first is underinvestment.
Transmission infrastructure hasn't expanded fast enough to match new generation capacity. Power lines, substations and transformers need constant upgrades and expansion to move electricity efficiently from generators to consumers.
The second problem is a persistent liquidity crisis strangling the entire sector. Politicians resist cost-reflective tariffs, leaving the industry starved for cash.
Revenue leaks throughout the system—distribution companies can't recover costs, generation companies face payment delays, and gas suppliers remain unpaid.
These aren't separate problems. They're connected.
Underfunded transmission means bottlenecks. Revenue shortfalls mean nobody gets paid.
Without payment, nobody invests. Without investment, capacity stagnates.
Breaking this cycle requires three things working together: artificial intelligence and modern technology to optimise what exists, genuine market reforms that create competition and accountability, and political leaders willing to make tough choices. Nigeria's power future depends on all three.
